June 18, 2019

There have been two disruptions to the housing market over the last nine months, but their effects are proving short-lived. First, a sudden increase in interest rates in late 2018 weighed on December and January sales activity. Second, record snow and the subsequent melt in February and March of this year weighed on sales activity in March and April. But May numbers are showing growth in seller activity, pending and closed buyer activity as well as quicker market times and rising prices.

Prices reached a new all-time high of $285,000. New listings rose 2.4 percent while closed sales were up 3.0 percent. After two months of increases, market times sped up by 4.3 percent compared to May 2018. The ratio of sold to list price fell for a fourth consecutive month, but by the smallest amount since February. In conjunction with other indicators, the market is improving for buyers, even though sellers still enjoy strong pricing power, favorable negotiating leverage and quick market times. For the last nine months, buyers have seen more active listings for sale than the year prior. Mortgage rates remain very attractive at around 3.85 percent on a 30-year fixed loan—far lower than anyone predicted by this time. We still have a tale of two markets: strong demand, weak supply and price growth in the affordable brackets but oversupply and slow market times in the upper brackets.

May 2019 by the Numbers (compared to a year ago)

• Sellers listed 9,402 properties on the market, a 2.4 percent increase from last May
• Buyers closed on 6,000 homes, a 3.0 percent increase
• Inventory levels for May increased 0.5 percent compared to 2018 to 11,327 units
• Months Supply of Inventory was flat at 3 months
• The Median Sales Price rose 5.2 percent to $285,000, a record high for any month
• Cumulative Days on Market decreased 4.3 percent to 45 days, on average (median of 17)
• Changes in Sales activity varied by market segment
  • Single family sales rose 2.7 percent; condo sales rallied 9.9 percent; townhome sales increased 3.1 percent
  • Traditional sales increased 4.4 percent; foreclosure sales declined 26.8 percent; short sales fell 28.6 percent
  • Previously-owned sales were up 2.9 percent; new construction sales surged 10.5 percent

Quotables

“We’re still seeing some rebalancing, but it just isn’t as dire as some want us to believe,” said Todd Urbanski, President of Minneapolis Area REALTORS®. “Rates under 4.0 percent is a significant motivator for buyers.”

“Not everyone understands that all real estate is local,” said Linda Rogers, President-Elect of Minneapolis Area REALTORS®. “Shifts in other regions have very little impact on our local market dynamics.”
From The Skinny Blog.

If February was the month of record snowfall, March was the month of record wet basements. The effects of extreme weather continue to impact the market. Despite that, the latest numbers for Twin Cities residential real estate show some strength amidst ongoing signs of change. Prices continued to climb, reaching a new record. New listings fell 8.8 percent as fewer sellers listed their properties. Closed sales were down 9.3 percent as some buyers waited on soggy properties as well as additional inventory options. Market times rose year-over-year for the first time since March 2015. Another sign of a changing market is the ratio of sold to list price has fallen for four of the last five months. This—along with other indicators—suggest the market is improving for buyers, even though sellers still have strong pricing power, favorable negotiating leverage and quick market times.

The number of active listings for sale decreased compared to the prior year. Even so, buyers have seen inventory gains for five of the last six months. Months supply, however, was flat at 1.8 months, suggesting the market is still tight but realigning. Buyers should still expect competition on the most coveted listings. After touching 5.0 percent in November, mortgage rates have settled back down around 4.1 percent, which is great news for buyers. The supply squeeze is most evident at the entry-level prices, where multiple offers and homes selling for over list price are commonplace. The move-up and upper-bracket segments are less competitive and better supplied.

March 2019 by the Numbers (compared to a year ago)

• Sellers listed 6,160 properties on the market, an 8.8 percent decrease from last March
• Buyers closed on 3,673 homes, a 9.3 percent decrease
• Inventory levels for March declined 4.2 percent compared to 2018 to 8,685 units
• Months Supply of Inventory was flat at 1.8 months
• “There’s plenty of buyers and sellers out there looking to get deals done,” said Linda Rogers, President-Elect of Minneapolis Area REALTORS®. “If rates and inventory cooperate, we’re still anticipating a solid year.”
• The Median Sales Price rose 6.5 percent to $275,000, a record high for any month
• Cumulative Days on Market rose 15.8 percent to 66 days, on average (median of 30)
• Changes in Sales activity varied by market segment
  • Single family sales declined 7.2 percent; condo sales sank 16.5 percent; townhome sales fell 12.2 percent
  • Traditional sales decreased 7.9 percent; foreclosure sales declined 26.8 percent; short sales fell 32.3 percent
  • Previously-owned sales were down 10.1 percent; new construction sales rose 2.3 percent

  Quotables

  “The extremes of February and March are still noticeable,” said Todd Urbanski, President of Minneapolis Area REALTORS®. “It’s difficult to disentangle weather-induced market shifts with organic market shifts.”

  All information is according to the Minneapolis Area REALTORS® based on data from NorthstarMLS. Minneapolis Area REALTORS® is the leading regional advocate and provider of information services and research on the real estate industry for brokers, real estate professionals and the public. We serve the Twin Cities 16-county metro area and western Wisconsin.
  From The Skinny Blog.

Winter sports enthusiasts likely enjoyed the snowiest February on record more than those attempting to buy and sell homes. Even so, the latest numbers for Twin Cities residential real estate show some strength amidst ongoing signs of change. Sellers showed a sizeable, weather-related decline in listing activity, while buyers entered into fewer contracts than last February even while closed sales rose. Market times flattened out as the median sales price continued to rise compared to last year. One sign of a changing market is the fact that the ratio of sold to list price has fallen for three of the last four months. This—along with other indicators—suggest the market is improving for buyers, even though sellers still have strong pricing, favorable negotiating leverage and quick market times.

Due to the decline in new listings, the number of active listings for sale decreased compared to the prior year. Even so, buyers have seen inventory gains for four of the last five months. Months supply followed suit, tick down to 1.6 months, suggesting the market is still tight. Buyers should expect competition on the most sought-after listings and neighborhoods. After increasing to 5.0 percent in November, mortgage rates have settled back down around 4.5 percent. That’s great news for buyers. The supply squeeze is most evident at the entry-level prices, where multiple offers and homes selling for over list price are commonplace. The move-up and upper-bracket segments are less competitive and better supplied. Inventory could rise substantially, and we’d still have a balanced market.

February 2019 by the Numbers (compared to a year ago)

Sellers listed 4,355 properties on the market, a 14.3 percent decrease from last February
Buyers closed on 2,798 homes, a 4.0 percent increase
Inventory levels for February declined 5.7 percent compared to 2018 to 7,936 units
Months Supply of Inventory decreased 5.9 percent to 1.6 months
The Median Sales Price rose 6.2 percent to $265,500, a record high for February
Cumulative Days on Market was flat at 69 days, on average (median of 43)
Changes in Sales activity varied by market segment

Single family sales rose 6.7 percent; condo sales fell 0.9 percent; townhome sales increased 1.0 percent
Traditional sales increased 7.4 percent; foreclosure sales sank 40.3 percent; short sales fell 41.4 percent
Previously-owned sales were up 4.7 percent; new construction sales rose 5.3 percent

Quotables

“The cold and snow in February was certainly an impediment,” said Todd Urbanski, President of Minneapolis Area REALTORS®. “The March numbers will offer more clarity on market direction.”

“We’re still sensing plenty of interest from buyers and sellers,” said Linda Rogers, President-Elect of Minneapolis Area REALTORS®. “This spring market should be productive, especially with more inventory.”

All information is according to the Minneapolis Area REALTORS® based on data from NorthstarMLS. Minneapolis Area REALTORS® is the leading regional advocate and provider of information services and research on the real estate industry for brokers, real estate professionals and the public. We serve the Twin Cities 16-county metro area and western Wisconsin.
From The Skinny Blog.

By David Arbit on Tuesday, February 19th, 2019

The latest numbers show that 2019 was off to a good start for TwinCities residential real estate. Sellers produced another increase in listing activity, while buyers entered into more contracts than last January even while closed sales fell. Market times continued to shrink as the median sold home price rose compared to last year. After two months of declines, the ratio of sold to list price rose slightly in January. There are some early indications the market is improving for buyers, even though sellers still have strong negotiating leverage and quick market times.

The number of active listings for sale has increased compared to the prior year. Buyers have seen inventory gains for four consecutive months. Months supply also ticked up to 1.6 months, suggesting the market is still tight but rebalancing and normalizing. After increasing to 5.0 percent in November, mortgage rates have settled back down around 4.5 percent. The lack of supply is especially noticeable at the entry-level prices, where multiple offers and homes selling for over list price are commonplace. The move-up and upper-bracket segments are less competitive and better supplied. Inventory could rise substantially, and we’d still have a balanced market.

January 2019 by the Numbers
(compared to a year ago)

– Sellers listed 4,359 properties on the market, a 7.8 percent increase from last January
– Buyers closed on 2,681 homes, a 4.6 percent decrease
– Inventory levels for January rose 1.1 percent compared to 2018 to 7,828 units
– Months Supply of Inventory increased 6.7 percent to 1.6 months
– The Median Sales Price rose 6.1 percent to $258,900, a record high for January
– Cumulative Days on Market declined 5.8 percent to 65 days, on average (median of 44)
– Changes in Sales activity varied by market segment:
– Single family sales fell 5.2 percent; condo sales rose 5.3 percent; townhome sales declined 2.9 percent
– Traditional sales decreased 1.4 percent; foreclosure sales sank 50.3 percent; short sales were flat
– Previously-owned sales were down 5.5 percent; new construction sales ramped up by 12.8 percent

Quotables

“We’re still very much undersupplied locally and nationally,” said Todd Urbanski, President of Minneapolis Area REALTORS®. “We’re expecting 2019 to be a good year for both buyers and sellers.”

“Our data shows slightly more inventory, and rates are down from where they were at the end of last year,” said Linda Rogers, President-Elect of Minneapolis Area REALTORS®. “Buyers should know that they’re going to find more options out there this spring and summer.”

All information is according to the Minneapolis Area REALTORS® based on data from NorthstarMLS. Minneapolis Area REALTORS® is the leading regional advocate and provider of information services and research on the real estate industry for brokers, real estate professionals and the public. We serve the Twin Cities 16-county metro area and western Wisconsin.
From The Skinny Blog.